"Strategy change seen in battle over gun control; In wake of shootings in Colorado, issue moves to forefront," The Baltimore Sun, June 28, 1999

THE BALTIMORE SUN June 28, 1999, Monday

June 28, 1999, Monday ,Final Edition
SECTION: TELEGRAPH ,1A
HEADLINE: Strategy change seen in battle over gun control; In wake of shootings in Colorado, issue moves to forefront
BYLINE: Jonathan Weisman

WASHINGTON -- In 1970, after Maryland Sen. Joseph Tydings championed the registration and licensing of all handguns, the National Rifle Association took aim and fired, helping to bring down the liberal Democrat by 22,000 votes.

Nearly 30 years later, the NRA is still brandishing Tydings' scalp as an object lesson for politicians who would dare cross the organization. Though Americans generally have supported gun control for years, politicians have approached the issue at their peril.

But this month's congressional showdown over gun control indicates a shift in the political landscape, a new willingness -- perhaps brave, perhaps foolhardy -- to make gun restrictions an issue in Washington and on the campaign trail. Democrats from the White House to the House of Representatives have displayed an almost blind faith that gun control will answer a surge of voter concern over what many see as a sharp decline in the nation's moral fabric.

Liberal pollster John Zogby calls gun control "the cultural issue of the 2000 campaign," an issue that crystallized in the nation's mind in April as it watched the rampage at Columbine High School in Colorado.

"Guns have become emblematic to people of something that's critically wrong in their community and American society today," Zogby said. "The concern can be summed up in one word: Littleton."

Republicans are positively giddy over the Democratic response to Littleton, convinced that the political dynamics of gun control have not changed since Tydings' day.

On the face of it, guns would seem to be an obvious issue. A June 16 Gallup Poll found that 87 percent of Americans support background checks at gun shows, 85 percent support the mandatory sale of trigger locks with guns, and 82 percent favor raising the legal age of firearms possession to 21, all proposals that were defeated in the House this month.

But those numbers are not dramatically higher than they have been in the past, when the NRA made gun-control advocates pay dearly for their votes.

Voters who favor gun control have always cast their ballots on the basis of a variety of issues, and gun control has never been a priority, said Karlyn Bowman of the American Enterprise Institute, who studies public opinion. But the anti-gun-control forces single-mindedly come out in angry droves, she said.

NRA executive vice president Wayne LaPierre, on the organization's Web site, promised that "the issue will dominate" the 2000 election, which he called "the most important in the history of this country."

By November 2000, "the gun debate this month will be long forgotten, with the exception of 2.8 million screaming-mad gun owners who belong to the NRA," said Michael Scanlon, spokesman for House Republican Whip Tom DeLay. " And I can tell you this, my friend: They will be lined up at the voting booth three days in advance to vote on this issue alone, and they'll be pulling the Republican lever each time."

That dynamic was graphically displayed last year in Washington state when a ballot measure to require the sale of trigger locks with guns was voted down by 60 percent in a low-turnout election, despite overwhelming support in the polls.

"The polls showed people strongly in favor of gun control in my day, too," a rueful Tydings said last week in an interview.

The post-Littleton landscape might be different. Politicians of all stripes acknowledge that the school shooting has caused a tectonic shift in the American electorate. In a June 22 poll, the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press found that the six top concerns of American voters are: crime and gangs; morality and ethics; teen violence; education; gun control; and drugs and alcohol -- all signs of Littleton's legacy, said Andrew Kohut, the center's director.

Gun control and teen violence had never before showed up as a concern.

There are other signs of voter unease. At a time when the nation's economy has perhaps never been stronger -- unemployment for minorities is at record lows, inflation has virtually disappeared and a vexing budget deficit has turned into a burgeoning surplus -- 51 percent of Americans say the country is moving in the wrong direction, according to a poll released Thursday by Republican Ed Goeas and Democrat Celinda Lake. Only 36 percent of those polled said the nation is on the right track.

Republicans believe the rise of morality as a political issue works squarely to their advantage. Democrats might try to frame gun control as a social issue, but Republicans can counter with a message that they are tougher on crime and more attuned to voters' concerns on religious values, gay rights, even flag burning.

"Safety could replace abortion as the social issue for the 2000 campaign, but it will be safety in a broader sense," predicted Republican political strategist Frank Luntz. "And crime control will beat gun control every time."

Lake conceded the point.

"People perceive the moral values question as broader than guns," the Democratic consultant said. "Democratic candidates have to appreciate that their party has been in a weaker position on values. They have to establish their personal credibility on the issue."

Still, Democratic gun-control supporters believe they can make headway on the issue. Vice President Al Gore has made gun control and opposition to the NRA a centerpiece in his White House campaign, hoping it will separate him in voters' minds from Republican candidate George W. Bush.

Bush, the Texas governor, signed a state law this month forbidding cities from suing gun manufacturers the way states, including Texas, sued cigarette makers. He also said he would have voted for an NRA-drafted gun measure -- supported by most Republicans and some Democrats -- that would have weakened current background checks of purchases from licensed dealers at gun shows by reducing the time limit on the checks from three days to 24 hours.

Former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley, Gore's sole challenger for the Democratic nomination, is trying to score points with the party's liberal base by promoting more ambitious gun-control proposals, such as a national ban on Saturday night specials, registration and licensing of handguns, and a prohibition on gun dealerships in residential neighborhoods.

Congressional Democratic leaders are even more enthusiastic, seeing victory next year in defeat on Capitol Hill this year. As Republican leaders were pushing through the NRA-backed measure just after midnight June 18, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Patrick J. Kennedy of Rhode Island led the chant, "Six seats, six seats," the number of Democrats need to regain control of the House.

The new willingness to stand up to the NRA comes in part from demographics. Rural and Southern House seats that would be vulnerable to pro-gun voters are largely Republican now. The new battleground is in the suburbs, where Republican women are increasingly supportive of gun control and increasingly politically active.

David Mermin, a Democratic consultant at Lake, Snell, Perry and Associates, said his polling in Pennsylvania showed such overwhelming support for gun control that he has advised all his candidates to embrace the issue.

"Soccer moms have one view on this issue. They're not divided," he said. "And it's becoming a much higher priority for them."

But the enthusiasm also stems from Bill Clinton's successful efforts to shift the Democratic Party rightward this decade. Democrats are not as vulnerable to the "soft-on-crime" charge as they once were. In last week's Lake-Goeas poll, 38 percent of voters said Republicans were more trustworthy on handling crime and drugs, while 30 percent said they trusted Democrats. By comparison, Democrats beat Republicans on issues of health care, protecting senior citizens and Social Security by 20 percentage points or more.

Moreover, Democrats have learned to frame the gun control issue in a way tailored to appeal to suburban swing voters, stressing values and the safety of children, while eschewing dramatic gun curbs. Democratic congressional aides said it was no accident that in their gun-control bills this month, they dropped the most stringent, and perhaps most effective measure proposed by the president: limiting handgun buyers to one purchase a month.

Roy Roemer, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, captures the new language of gun control when he focuses on trigger locks, background checks and the banning of high-capacity clips for semiautomatic weapons.

"I've got 18 grandchildren, 18," said Roemer, the former governor of Colorado. "Let me tell you, I don't want them living in a world that's more dangerous because of our foolishness."

Still, when the issue of gun control turns from platitudes to real votes, Democrats might still be in trouble. When Kennedy was asked which six Republican seats would go Democratic based on gun control, he demurred, speaking of gun control as just one more issue in the mix.

His GOP counterpart, National Republican Campaign Committee Chairman Thomas M. Davis III of Virginia, was not so coy. Not only has he identified six Democrats that he says will lose their seats over gun control, but his aides have found eight more that could be hurt dearly.

GRAPHIC: PHOTO(S) Senator: Joseph Tydings in a photo from 1970.